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Ohio Democrats Unsure If Economy Will Help or Hurt President Obama in November

Local Democrats want to see the president focus on the positives in the state’s economy.

Northeast Ohio Democrats are divided on whether the state’s economy will help or hurt President Barack Obama’s campaign this fall.

In , Democratic insiders were split on how they thought the economy would affect the election this fall, but they knew they wanted the president to focus on the positives and tie failures to the competition.


About 45 percent of all respondents thought Ohio’s economy would hurt the president’s chances of winning the state this November. About a third thought it would help the campaign, and almost 20 percent were neutral.

But the Democrats we surveyed were united in thinking that Obama should focus on the positives in Ohio’s economy, including our lower-than-average unemployment rate. About 85 percent said they strongly or somewhat agreed with the idea. Only 6 percent opposed it.

“The voters of Ohio are smart,” said one insider who responded to the survey. “They see the jobs President Obama saved by helping the auto industry in our great state. They realize Gov. Romney was opposed to helping the auto industry and that would have led to far more job losses. They also see the public sector shedding jobs while the private sector is growing.”

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the national unemployment rate was 8.2 percent in June. In Ohio, the unemployment rate was 7.2 percent.

Another tactic that most of our respondents wanted to see the president try was tying the state’s economic struggles to previous Republican policies. About 64 percent strongly or somewhat agreed with the idea, while about 27 percent were opposed.

“Because Ohio is a swing state, there are very few economic policies that belong to only one political party,” said an insider who responded to the survey, adding that Obama can reach out to undecided voters by “using GOP policies as both a sword and shield.” The respondent wanted to see the Democrats take credit for extending unemployment benefits and defending Medicare, and argued that the Republicans focused on ideological priorities.

What do you think? Will the economy help or hurt the Democrats in the election this fall?

This is the latest installment of our Red/Bue Ohio series, in which we gather opinion and insight from influential local Democratic and Republican activists, party leaders and elected officials in Northeast Ohio.

Want to participate? If you are an activist, party leader or elected official and would like to take part in regular surveys that last only a few minutes, please e-mail Senior Regional Editor Jean Dubail at jean.dubail@patch.com.

Evan Hammersmith August 7, 2012 at 01:07 pm
Joe, when I say food stamps, I'm using it generically to mean the EBT card, or Ohio directional card. It's all the same. It's "tax payer funded free food". I see it constantly. I notice because when someone pays with it, I have a longer wait in line. same when people write checks, but that's another topic. If I were on welfare, I would try to make my entitlement money stretch as well. Often I see them buying "luxury" food that I have to pass up because I'm on a budget with the dollars I EARN. If I were in charge of welfare, i would only allow about 10 items to choose from. Once you get tired of eating corn flakes and white bread, you go out and get a job. If you dont care and you dont mind eating corn flakes and drinking water, feel free to accept my tax dollars indefinitely.
Paxton Crenshaw August 7, 2012 at 02:11 pm
hey evan, i hate "lazy" too - but don't equate being lazy with being poor. i know a lot of lazy people who earn six figures and just as many hard-working people who live in poverty. just because a person receives food stamp assistance doesn't mean they are not working - it means that their income is at (or close to) the national poverty level. is a single parent with 2 kids who works for minimum wage 40 hours a week lazy? that person is living at the poverty level. chances are that same parent only works 38 hours a week so their employer does not have to provide any healthcare benefits - so there you go, no health insurance for this family either. is this person lazy? hardly. programs like this are necessary to keep children (and adults) nourished and healthy and while there will be abuses of any program, the majority of people who utilize this program need the assistance (and in my opinion, a poor family deserves a little junk food now and then just like everyone else so lighten up on the judgment while in the checkout queue). so don't confuse "poor" with "lazy" - two different things.
James Thomas August 7, 2012 at 03:15 pm
Mr. Mihaly,
Democrats are All Inclusive, what a farce. http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/08/06/democrats-disavow-tennessee-senate-candidate/
joe ponikarovsky August 7, 2012 at 03:51 pm
totally agree paxton. i know two families who are on food stamps and both of them have a mother and/or father that works forty-plus hour weeks; they don't have extravagances like new cars, vacations, fancy electronics; they don't splurge on needless things, etc. both are simply divorced, single parents trying to make ends meet. i wouldn't call either one lazy, by any means. (and i agree, everyone needs some food luxuries now and then; especially if it's one of the few ways you can spoil yourself semi-cheaply.)
now of course, some would argue that "well that's their fault; they should have gone to college or learned a trade or not gotten divorced, etc." and that's great. but unfortunately, not everyone lives in that world and some people have to make do with what they've got (and in today's world, some college grads are actually in this poor-but-not-lazy boat too). and yes, there are also lazy poor people. lash out at them all you like, i guess. but how do you know that everyone you see in line with their EBT cards is one? you don't. so please, reserve judgement and get off your high-horse just a bit.
Tim Torrence August 7, 2012 at 06:07 pm
Robert you also cherry pick your facts. The surge in Iraq was widely proclaimed as the pacifier in that country. A surge our president opposed. When he took office he instituted the same tactic in Afghanistan in order to curb the violence. As far as gas prices go the oil and energy companies consistently show profit margins in the 8 to 11% range. This is far less than other industries, check Coke and Pepsi, and any pizza company. Their profit margins are two to three times greater but you do not complain because you see $5 pizzas. But what were you paying five years ago when the cost of living and cost to produce were far lower. The cost of oil is most notably shown at the gas pump but it is reflected in everything you buy because of the manufacturing and transportation processes. Unfortunately you only look at gas prices when they go up or down. Do you notice the price of everything else simply rises? When the cost of oil goes down the cost of durable goods is stagnant when the cost of oil goes up the cost of durable goods rises in kind.
Evan Hammersmith August 7, 2012 at 06:22 pm
Ok, Paxton, and Joe, you each provided anecdotal evidence to show that there are working poor. I'd like to see some stats that show most poor people work 40 hours/week and budget their money/ live within their means. I'd bet that those who do that would not need to be on welfare very long. They would be able to work their way up. The shopping carts filled with junk food I see do not indicate a "once in a while splurge". It's a way of life, because there's obviously enough money on the card for such purchases. The system stinks. And no I should not have to pay for someone's soft drinks, energy drinks, cookies, and whatever other junk food. Bread, water, milk, corn flakes, apples, broccoli, and chicken. That's it. Dont like it? Then visit the food pantries and charities. They do wonderful work and help a lot of people. Taxpayer funds should not be used for frivolous items. period.
Joe Giles August 7, 2012 at 07:14 pm
Are you better off under King Barack
Paxton Crenshaw August 7, 2012 at 07:31 pm
"work their way up"??????? up to where? what should, say, a store clerk at the circle K aspire to work up to? a store manager job that pays a salary where the salary, once broken down into hourly wages equals less than minimum wage? in low-paying/low-skill jobs, there is no ladder to climb. and evan, you can't live within your means when the cost of transportation, utilities, food and housing costs are beyond what is affordable. (just a note, subsidized housing is not free - tenants pay on a sliding scale). you suggest that poor people utilize food pantries and charities - do you realize that these, too are often government funded? GWB authorized funding faith-based charities during his second term, i believe. of course, being an active member of the cleveland vineyard church you probably have no problem with your tax dollars going there, do you? i must note here, that i do find your aversion to helping the less fortunate and needy through whatever means possible (i.e. federal programs) somewhat out-of-step with the philosophical mission of your church (see page 29 of the vineyard USA theological and philosophical statements, "1. care for the poor 2. care for the lost and 3. care for the sick and broken-hearted"). since you're a leader of the vineyard "young professionals of lakewood" group, i ask you, where do you think jesus would be on this issue?
joe ponikarovsky August 7, 2012 at 07:40 pm
evan: thanks for considering the viewpoint. i don't have stats that you're asking for, but it would be an interesting read. but common sense can guide us a good bit. let's consider that ohio's minimum wage is $7.70/hr. what if you've got two kids? what do you do with them while you're at work? day care? good luck, you'll basically be working to send them there and maybe have a couple bucks an hour to keep for yourself. well maybe you're lucky and have some relatives to help out with the kids. awesome. so, best-case-scenario, you've got about $1000 a month to feed three people, put gas in the car, pay the rent/mortgage, utilities, car payment, insurance payment, possible health care costs, clothes for the kids, etc. easy? not at all.
still think that most of these people won't be on welfare for long? (note that i didn't mention any extraneous/fun activities or items whatsoever, so this would be a very budgeted family.) can you see how sometimes decent, hard-working people actually do need these subsidies but are still living in a situation where it is VERY tough to "work their way up?"
Joe Giles August 7, 2012 at 07:55 pm
Weak economy, no job growth and huge deficits. No way King Barack runs on his record
Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/harry-reid-smear-attack-mitt-romney-masks-dems-problems-article-1.1130254#ixzz22tMvjla2
Evan Hammersmith August 7, 2012 at 08:55 pm
Paxton, you and I will fundamentally disagree on what help means for anyone who needs it. You see the government as the ideal way to help people. I see the church as the ideal way to help people. Neither of the ideals is the reality. The reality is that it's a combination of the two. It's the mission of the Vineyard IE THE CHURCH to help the poor. I'm very much in support of this. Do I want government money to buy people soft drinks? NO. It's not a good use of funds. If my taxes were lower, I could use more money to help people. That's how it works. I am not at odds with my faith, so stop accusing me of such. I dont need lectured about how store clerks make lower income. My dad was a clerk and worked his way to management. He never made a lot, but he worked a lot of hours to provide for my family. I made minimum wage for 4 years in high school, and I saved a small amt of money to get started at college. I paid for all of my loans myself, minus a little bit my dad helped with. I know what it means to go without. when i had no money in college, i donated plasma for an extra $20. don't tell me about struggling. I've talked to plenty of people who have sacrificed with low wages to work their way out of the bottom. I never said it was simple. too many people think you're supposed to raise a family on minimum wage. Those are not the only jobs out there, and you dont need college to get better. so stop with that phony line.
Robert Mihaly August 7, 2012 at 09:29 pm
Joe and Paxton...you have to recognize that your words, no matter how much they are true, will not dent the hardened shell of a true believer like Evan. Just look at the bottom of these comments, and you'll see that Joe Giles has been talking to himself for hours. Clearly Evan doesn't know any recent college grads who did all the right things, graduated with immense debt (because college costs a LOT more than it did for Evan), and now find few jobs available, outside of the kind they could have gotten without college. When you stop trying to reason with a closed mind, you'll probably come back hours from now to find that he's also still talking to himself. This all has nothing to do with the topic, but it points out why Congress can't get anything done. Too many people with extreme views have been elected, and they all talk, but they don't listen to each other.
Joe Giles August 7, 2012 at 09:39 pm
Nine percent of '08 Obama supporters defect to Romney
http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/08/poll-nine-percent-of-obama-supporters-defect-to-romney-131220.html Because King Barack and Democrats cannot defend their performance on the economy. It is not an option because other people will discuss their performance.
Adam C. Miller August 8, 2012 at 12:00 am
This past weekend, during the Ohio Democratic Party State Dinner, Democrats presented Ohio Education Association President Patricia Frost-Brooks with the Democrat of the Year Award... http://www.ohea.org/democrat-of-the-year-award
Joe Giles August 8, 2012 at 01:14 am
Ohio democrats are split on one issue and unsure on another. Has to tell you something. Think they will figure it all out by themselves?
Dan Marol August 8, 2012 at 02:11 am
It looks like Joe had a busy day in front of the TV watching Fox News....
Robert Mihaly August 8, 2012 at 02:57 am
Tim, anyone who doesn't know that the price of oil determines the price of pretty much everything hasn't been paying attention since 1973, when OPEC put the screws to the whole world. It's in plastics, fabrics, and all kinds of things most people wouldn't imagine (food preservatives, soap, vitamin capsules, antihistamines, Cortisone, deodorant, dyes, you name it). It affects the cost of transporting everything. And it's rare that the prices of any of those things go down when oil prices dip. You're right about that. But I don't cherry pick. There's only so much you can put in any individual comment. If you exceed the character limit, you get the message, "Slow down there, Tolstoy." And it just kicked in. (to be continued)
Robert Mihaly August 8, 2012 at 02:59 am
(Continuation)
Tim, I was just interested in seeing where these comments were going...and they pretty much reflect that we may have the rotten Congress we deserve. When people are talking but not listening, you get nowhere. There are two well-known books that spell it out: "The Broken Branch: How Congress Is Failing America and How to Get It Back on Track (Institutions of American Democracy)" by Thomas E. Mann and Norman J. Ornstein; and "It's Even Worse Than It Looks: How the American Constitutional System Collided With the New Politics of Extremism" by Thomas E. Mann and Norman J. Ornstein (May 1, 2012). These are co-written by a liberal and a conservative, both members of think tanks, and they conclude that the so-called liberal media is wrong to blame both parties equally for the dysfunction of Congress. They refer to what they call "asymmetric polarization," with the Republican Party refusing to allow anything that might help the Democrats politically, no matter the cost. If you don't see it that way, read it. BTW, profit margins are just one way to measure performance. Total revenue is another, and there, 6 of the top 10 companies in the rankings are in Oil and Gas.
Joe Giles August 8, 2012 at 03:25 am
Nope, nothing from Fox news at all:
Real Clear Markets Politico NY Daily News National Review Looks like you conclusions are erroneous.
Robert Mihaly August 8, 2012 at 03:34 am
James, there are troglodites in the Democratic Party too. That doesn't mean we have to support a bad candidate like the one you site. I'm surprised you didn't also mention the Texas felon who somehow got his name on the West Virginia Democratic ballot and actually won some counties thanks to disgruntled coal miners. So what?
Paxton Crenshaw August 8, 2012 at 03:49 am
@robert, you're right - no opinions will be swayed on here and arguing with the opposition is time-wasting. from this point forward i'm steering clear of the political articles (which i feel patch baits us with anyway) and will stick to the local stuff. the one exception will be on november 7th when i will post a loud "ha ha ha - you lose!" to mr. hammertime and friends after both president obama and senator brown are re-elected.
Joe Giles August 8, 2012 at 04:09 am
Try at least 100 readers per comment. So when democrats look bad they look bad to a lot of people out there in the Ohio cloud.
Robert Mihaly August 8, 2012 at 05:02 am
I concur, Paxton. Just look at the bottom of the comment section and see Joe Giles wandering through the night and cursing the dark. He's been at it for the past 24 hours+, and he's mostly talking to himself. I'd rather watch a bit of Craig Ferguson than read more of this. Will look for your post in November.
Joe Giles August 8, 2012 at 11:38 am
Federal Spending: Killing the Economy With Government Stimulus
http://www.forbes.com/sites/dougbandow/2012/08/06/federal-spending-killing-the-economy-with-government-stimulus/ Clear to everyone except Democrats. Democrats are unsure, confused or split.
Joe Giles August 8, 2012 at 01:26 pm
Did your health care costs go down by $2,500 per family as King Barack promised or did it go up by $2,500?
I guess democrats are unsure, confused and split.
MZ August 10, 2012 at 01:25 pm
Additonal spending on public workers does not help the economy grow. The money has to come from somewhere. As an owner of small businesses I can assure you that each addtional dollar taken from me in the form of taxes is one less dollar that I can use to grow the business.
If your theory worked, then we should immediately hire every unemployed person to a government high paying job. Actually, we should eliminate the private market and just have everyone work for the government...just like all those successful communist countries did last century. Worked out great for them.
James Thomas August 13, 2012 at 03:28 pm
Mr. Mihaly,
this was a Democratic Primary candidate legitimately elected by the Democratic voters of Tennessee and he was disavowed. Some Big Tent.
Colter95 November 4, 2012 at 04:26 pm
I saw Obama yesterday claiming the new job numbers are proof that his policies are working and that we are in an economic recovery... Fact is, that is not the truth, or even close to the truth...
First, the unemployment rate ticked up to 7.9% and the year-to-date monthly average of 157,000 payroll jobs is barely enough to keep up with population growth -- much less make up for the 8 million jobs lost during the Great Recession. Second, the so-called real unemployment rate (U6) remains elevated at 14.6%, albeit down from 14.7% the prior month. Similarly, the labor participation rate is at 63.8%, up from its multi-decade low but still incredibly weak. Third, average hourly earnings fell a penny in October and average hours worked fell to 34.4 from 34.5 in September. Stagnant wages means "we're not generating income," Reinhart says. "That's a problem in terms of the durability of an economic expansion, which is usually fueled by consumption. To get consumption you've got to generate income." Also, just look at your checkbook. We are paying a lot more for everything now than we did in 2008. The price of gas has doubled. At the same time, wages have gone down, and that's if you're lucky to have a job. In 2008, 25 banks went out of business. In 2012, 48 banks have gone out of business. Almost double the amount. Does that sound like recovery to you? Don't believe the Obama lies!! Romney/Ryan 2012
Colter95 November 4, 2012 at 04:26 pm
Obama is a failure:
• 2009 Mandatory spending: $1.89 trillion (+6.2%) o $644 billion – Social Security o $360 billion – Unemployment/Welfare/Other mandatory spending o $408 billion – Medicare o $224 billion – Medicaid o $260 billion – Interest on National Debt • 2010 Mandatory spending: $2.173 trillion (+14.9%) o $695 billion (+4.9%) – Social Security o $571 billion (+58.6%) – Unemployment/Welfare/Other mandatory spending o $453 billion (+6.6%) – Medicare o $290 billion (+12.0%) – Medicaid o $164 billion (+18.0%) – Interest on National Debt Obama’s and his Democrat Senator pals 2010 budget spent $283 Billion more in just 1 year. That’s a 15% increase……in 1 year!! Look at the increased spending in WELFARE……$211 BILLION!!!! 1 year!!! Did our Senator VOTE YES to do this knowing there was NO MONEY to pay for it and ADDING more burden to our poor children and grandchildren.
Colter95 November 4, 2012 at 04:27 pm
Wrong on the economy, wrong on Benghazi, and wrong on the auto bailout... The time for real change is NOW!!
http://www.policymic.com/articles/14285/obama-lies-obama-auto-bailout-did-not-rescue-detroit http://www.factcheck.org/2012/06/obamas-outsourcer-overreach/ http://twitchy.com/2012/10/23/obama-lies-about-romneys-position-on-auto-bailouts-conservatives-hit-back/ http://newsbusters.org/blogs/jack-coleman/2012/10/26/letterman-slams-obama-auto-bailout-lie-followed-maddow-parroting-same- Romney/Ryan 2012

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